Abstract
This paper studied the trend of road accident in Kogi State from January, 1997 to December, 2010, using a univariate time series data collected from the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC), Lokoja, Kogi State. The model for the data was found to be Y = 22.062 + 0.252T. Test for the existence of trend and seasonal variation was conducted at 0.05 level of significance, and a four years forecast for road accident was made for the year 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. It was found that there is no seasonal variation but trend which shows steady increase in Kogi State accident rate. All Statistical analyses were done using a statistical package called SPSS. Key words: Trend, variation, Kogi, SPSS, road accident, forecast, smoothing and federal road safety commission (FRSC).
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