Abstract
This paper discusses how to promote high-speed rail (HSR) freight business by solving the congestion problem. First, we define the existing operation modes in China and propose the idea of relieving congestion by reserving more carriages of HSR passenger trains for freight between cities with large potential volume or small capacity. Second, we take one HSR corridor as a case to study, and use predictive regression and integrated time series methods to forecast the growth of HSR freight volume along the corridor. Finally, combined with forecast results and available capacity during the peak month of 2018, we offer suggestions on the mode adoption in each segment during the peak month from 2019 to 2022. Results demonstrate: (1) Among all 84 Origin-Destination (OD) city flows, the percentage of those monthly volumes over 1 ton increases from 17.9% in 2018 to 84.6% in 2022, and those over 30 tons rise from 3.6% to 26.2%. (2) Among the segments between seven main cities in the HSR corridor, T-J should be given priority to operate trains with reserved mode; the segment between X and J deserves to reserve most carriages during the peak month in the future. Specifically, our model suggests reserving 5.3–10.1 carriages/day for J-X, and 4.8–16.3 carriages/day for X-J during the peak month from 2019 to 2022.
Highlights
With the rise of e-commerce in China, the average time for door-to-door service decreases every year, which pushes courier companies to adopt more rapid and efficient transportation modes
Company C only offered two modes in the daytime: (a) Mixed mode, which denotes transporting high-speed rail (HSR) freight by HSR passenger trains, with cargoes loaded on the vacant place within the HSR passenger train using for storing luggage; (b) inspect mode, which denotes transporting HSR freight by the inspecting trains, which is the first HSR train running daily morning to check whether hidden danger exists in the track
For the mean number of HSR passenger trains departing from origin city (MHDo), every 1% increase in its number leads to a 2.23% increase in VPHod, which indicates the larger the capacity of HSR passenger trains, the more space to ship parcels through HSR, promoting the increase of VPHod
Summary
With the rise of e-commerce in China, the average time for door-to-door service decreases every year, which pushes courier companies to adopt more rapid and efficient transportation modes. The advantage of its significant operating frequency and the top speed of 250–350 km/h makes HSR transport service more time-efficient over aviation, road, and traditional railway at the range of mid-and long-distance [1]. With the increasing demand of courier companies for HSR freight volume and timeliness, Company C can no longer provide sufficient transport capacity only with two modes. This is because, on the one hand, each train under inspect mode can provide dozens of tons of capacity at a time, it runs only once a day and on a fixed route, which makes it possible to operate between very few cities. The growing passengers and luggage lead to less and less space for HSR passenger trains under mixed mode to ship parcels
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