Abstract
Since the 1980s, China’s commercial housing market has shown an unprecedented rapid development, and the commercial houses still has a high price. This paper studies the sales rate of commercial housing sales to find an appropriate model, and it analyzes the volatility of the commercial housing market to describe the sustainable development of the commercial housing market. By selecting month data of China’s commercial housing sales from January 2006 to October 2018, this paper uses EViews7.2 and the ARMA Model as the tool in order to establish EARCH(1,1) through the method of quantitative analysis. It is found that the yield of commercial housing sales has obvious cluster, asymmetry and leverage effect, and the impact of adverse news on the commercial housing market is more significant than the impact of favorable news.
Highlights
In recent years, China’s development rate has been very rapid, and the people’s living standards have been significantly improved
This paper studies the sales rate of commercial housing sales to find an appropriate model, and it analyzes the volatility of the commercial housing market to describe the sustainable development of the commercial housing market
It is found that the yield of commercial housing sales has obvious cluster, asymmetry and leverage effect, and the impact of adverse news on the commercial housing market is more significant than the impact of favorable news
Summary
China’s development rate has been very rapid, and the people’s living standards have been significantly improved. China’s commercial housing market has ushered in an unprecedented period of development especially in the context of the establishment of a comprehensive well-off society. Many domestic scholars have conducted a lot of researches for the future development prospects of the commercial housing market. Zheng Lan [3] (2006) used the VAR model to discuss the transmission effect of monetary policy in the commercial housing market. None of the above documents have studied the volatility of commercial housing market. The development status of China’s commercial housing sales market is analyzed, and relevant suggestions are put forward as a reference.
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