Empirical analyses on the development trend of non-ferrous metal industry under China’s new normal

Abstract

The CGE model of Yunnan’s macro economy was constructed based on the input-output data of Yunnan in 2012, and the development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry (NMI) under the China’s new normal was simulated. In view of this, according to different expected economic growth, and optimized economic structure, the impact on development of Yunnan NMI was simulated. The results show that the NMI growth rate is expected to decline when the economic growth show a downward trend, but the change of the proportion is relatively small. Moreover, the structure in proportion was adjusted to realize the economic structure optimization, while the proportion of NMI in GDP will decline. In contrast, the biggest influence on the NMI is the change of economic structure. From the statistics of last two years, we can see that NMI is growing, and at the same time, its proportion is declining, which is consistent with the results of simulation. But the adjustment of economic structure will take a long time. It is need to improve the proportion of deep-processing industry, extend the industrial chain, enhance the value chain, so as to be made good use of resource advantage.