Abstract
Electric heat pumps offer a promising opportunity to help achieve deep decarbonization of the building sector. However, since electric generators serve load in real time with varying emissions, comparing the emissions impact of heat pumps to their natural gas heating alternatives requires considering time of use. We analyze the temporal load shapes of heat pump water heaters and air-source heat pumps in the context of temporal grid-level emissions data. We find that switching from natural gas to electricity could reduce the annual emissions of a California household by 50–70% and 46–54% for water and space heating, respectively. These findings support the adoption of electric heat pumps as a strategy for deep decarbonization.
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