Abstract
Between 2005 and 2019, a quarter of US fossil fuel production came from federal lands and waters. We estimate that the extraction, transportation and combustion of these fuels resulted in emissions equivalent to roughly 1.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. To better understand their future role in the US emissions profile, we use publicly available data and machine learning to model coal, oil and natural gas production on federal lands and waters to 2030, and calculate associated life cycle climate emissions. We estimate that total emissions from fossil fuels produced on federal lands and waters decline 6% below 2019 levels by 2030; and note that absent additional policy, further reductions may be challenging as some of the cheapest fossil fuels occur on federally owned lands and many are effectively subsidized.
Highlights
The US government is one of the world’s largest energy asset managers, responsible for administering fossil fuel development on over 2.4 billion acres of onshore and offshore subsurface mineral rights (United States Bureau of Land Management 2020; US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management 2020)
We estimate that the extraction, transportation and combustion of these fuels resulted in emissions equivalent to roughly 1.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year
Climatic Change (2022) 171: 11 emissions associated with this historic extraction averaged 1,408 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent MMTCO2e per year, nearly a quarter of annual US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since 2005 (US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2021)
Summary
The US government is one of the world’s largest energy asset managers, responsible for administering fossil fuel development on over 2.4 billion acres of onshore and offshore subsurface mineral rights (United States Bureau of Land Management 2020; US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management 2020). Climatic Change (2022) 171: 11 emissions associated with this historic extraction averaged 1,408 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent MMTCO2e per year, nearly a quarter of annual US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since 2005 (US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2021) Despite their sizeable contribution to the US greenhouse gas profile, emissions from fuels produced on federal lands and waters have not been tracked and reported on an annual basis. The USGS report was meant to establish a methodology for subsequent analysis; that annually updated database for federal lands and waters did not materialize Our research fills this gap by extending historic emissions analysis through 2019 and provides a forward-looking emissions projection to 2030. Our strategy provides a replicable methodology that is updated when future, publicly available data is released
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