Abstract
Air pollution is a major cause of premature death in Greater Cairo, but studies on emission control are limited. We used local and international data to predict the impact of transport emission control measures on sector parameters including congestion. The International Vehicle Emission model accordingly estimated quantities of criteria, toxic and global warming emissions produced by on-road vehicles. Emissions were estimated for 2019 base case (2019-BC) and projected for 2030 under the ‘do nothing’ scenario (2030-DNS) and five scenarios: fuel subsidy removal (2030-FSR), road expansions (2030-RE), public transport improvements (2030-PTI), inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs (2030-I/MP), and fuel enhancements (2030-FE). The 2030-FSR would reduce emissions by 11.2% versus 2030-DNS. The 2030-RE resulted in an average increase of 37% in emissions compared with 2030-DNS since it induces more traffic. The 2030-PTI provides alternatives to car travel; hence, cars result in an average drop of 32.8% for all emission types compared with 2030-DNS. The 2030-I/MP exhibited reductions in PM10 and toxic pollutants, of 35–54.8% compared with 2030-DNS. The 2030-FE reduced SOx, benzene and N2O emissions by 91.8%, 81% and 39.1%, respectively, compared with 2030-DNS. The 2030-I/MP is most effective in reducing health damaging pollutants while 2030-PTI positively impacts commuters’ lifestyle.
Highlights
Air pollution is one of the top five risk factors for disease and premature death inEgypt [1]
In Greater Cairo, the transport sector accounts for 26% of total emissions of particulate matter with a diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10 ), more than 90% of carbon monoxide (CO), 90% of hydrocarbons, 22% of sulfur oxides (SOx ), and 50% of nitrogen oxides (NOx ) [2,3]
A study carried out in 1996 by the Egyptian government, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S EPA), and the USAID assessed four emission control scenarios for Cairo, showing that inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs had not considerably reduced emissions and that new vehicle standards were effective in reducing NOx and evaporative emissions, while reduced fuel volatility was most effective in reducing hydrocarbon emissions, and, a combination of all instruments was proposed as the best route to adopt [36]
Summary
Air pollution is one of the top five risk factors for disease and premature death in. In Greater Cairo, emission control programs are continuously implemented to address the standing issue of on-road transport pollution [13]. A study carried out in 1996 by the Egyptian government, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S EPA), and the USAID assessed four emission control scenarios for Cairo, showing that I/M programs had not considerably reduced emissions and that new vehicle standards were effective in reducing NOx and evaporative emissions, while reduced fuel volatility was most effective in reducing hydrocarbon emissions, and, a combination of all instruments was proposed as the best route to adopt [36]. Cairo that sets a systematic methodology to assess the impact of ongoing and future efforts to reduce on-road transport emissions in the long run. Among other populous cities in developing countries but has not been used for Greater Cairo to date
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