Emission Scenario Of PM10 In ItalyAnd Its Source Territorial Distribution:Analysis And Perspective

Abstract

The modern modelling instruments (e.g. IAM Integrated Assessment Models) provide a clear relationship between the policy measures and the effects both in terms of pollutant emissions and concentrations/depositions. Notwithstanding, the secondary organic components of PM (a significant share of the total particles) are not considered in the model, the accurate knowledge of the PM primary emissions is still a good starting point for the characterization of the pollution from PM. Moreover, the territorial distribution of the emission sources and emissions is an important aspect in order to have a complete analysis of the PM pollution in the country. In this paper, a revised estimation of the PM10 emissions in Italy at the year 2000 as well as the projections at 2010 are presented. The calculations have been carried out by the RAINS-Italy model, an IAM tool under development jointly by ENEA and IIASA, in the framework of a scientific research agreement with the Italian Ministry for the Environment and the Territory. Through appropriate scaling factors, elaborated by ENEA, the input national data have been disaggregated for the 20 Italian administrative regions to allow the calculation of regional emissions. The analysis shows as the PM10 emissions are distributed on the Italian territory following a very inhomogeneous pattern, since the major share of the emissions is concentrated in the most populated area in northern Italy, but also in some southern, not adjacent, regions. At national level, the preliminary analysis of the cost-curve shows, as in traditional energy sectors, like road transport, industry and electricity production, the most cost-effective measures are exhausted.