Emission profile of Pakistan’s agriculture: past trends and future projections

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011).

Gaining Acceptance of Novel Plant Breeding Technologies.

Rapid industrialization and urbanization in the 20th century have led to increasing volumes of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere[...]

The vast majority of the scientific community believe that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the predominant cause of climate change. One of the GHG emission sources is agriculture. Following the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines regarding GHG emission calculation, agriculture is responsible for around 10% of the overall global emissions. Agricultural GHG emissions consist of several emission source categories and several GHGs. In this article were described the results of multivariate statistical analyses performed on data gathered during the period 1990–2017 from the inventories of 43 Annex I countries (parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, listed in Annex I of the Convention). Trends in the agricultural GHG emissions were analyzed. Generally, the global agricultural GHG emissions are increasing, while the emissions from Annex I countries are decreasing. Apart from the application of urea, emissions from all other sources, such as enteric fermentation, manure management, rice cultivation, agricultural soils, field burning of agricultural residues, and liming are decreasing. Based on multivariate analysis, the most different countries, in terms of GHG emission sources composition in agriculture and emission trends, are Australia, Japan, New Zealand and USA. The rest of the Annex I countries are mostly from Europe and their shares and trends are similar, with slight differences between countries depending, among others, on the date of joining the European Union.

At the UN climate change conference in Paris in November 2015, Norway committed itself to a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Agriculture accounts for 8% of Norway’s total GHG emissions. If GHGs from drained and cultivated wetland (categorized under land use, land use change and forestry) are included, the share is 13%; this for a sector that accounts for roughly 0.3% of GDP. As is the case in most countries, agriculture is currently exempt from emission reduction measures, including the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS), in which Norway participates. But the country has recently signaled its intention to include agriculture in future emission reduction efforts. Consideration is being given to how best to achieve GHG reductions in the sector. A recent report by the Norwegian Green Tax Commission, established by the government to evaluate policy options for achieving emission reductions, (Government of Norway, 2015) emphasizes the importance of including agriculture. The Commission suggests that agricultural emissions should be taxed at the same rate as for other sectors. It also recommends that reductions in the production and consumption of red meat should be specifically targeted, through cuts in production grants to farmers and the imposition of consumption taxes. Unsurprisingly, this proposed policy shift is extremely controversial and faces resistance, particularly from the farmers’ unions. Farmers argue that the maintenance of domestic agricultural production is crucial for achieving national food security objectives, in addition to pursuing other aims such as the maintenance of economic activity in rural areas and landscape preservation. Food security, which has been a key policy objective since the end of the Second World War, has been interpreted in Norway as requiring high levels of selfsufficiency in basic agricultural commodities. To achieve this, substantial subsidies are provided to farmers and domestic prices of many commodities are kept at high levels by restricting imports. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that the total financial support provided to Norwegian agriculture in 2015 was equivalent to 62% of the value of gross farm receipts, which made Norway (along with Switzerland) a leader in the amount of support provided to agriculture by the 50 OECD member and non-member countries monitored by the Organization (OECD, 2016). In this paper we analyze policy options for achieving a 40% reduction in agricultural GHG emissions, consistent with the economy-wide target, while imposing the restriction that national food production measured in calories should be maintained (the food security target). This is consistent with the way that the Norwegian government identifies the country’s food security objective. In section 2 we outline the current situation with respect to GHG emissions in Norwegian agriculture. In section 3 we illustrate the policy issues involved by considering two product aggregates that are intensive in the use of land for crop production (grainland) and grassland, respectively. The aggregates are based on data for the main commodities in Norwegian agriculture relating to GHG emissions, land use, caloric content, subsidies, and costs per unit of production. We show that even though the opportunity set (i.e., the production combinations that are possible within technical constraints) is narrow, a 40% cut in emissions is achievable by substituting from ruminant products that are intensive in the use of grassland to products based on grainland. We also show that the emissions reduction both reduces government budgetary costs and land use, i.e., ruminant products are characterized by relatively high subsidies and land use. Two-dimensional analysis ignores the fact that per unit emissions from dairy production are low compared to other ruminant products (i.e., beef and sheep production). Both in terms of production value and agricultural employment, dairy farming is the most important component of Norwegian agriculture. Consequently, milk production deserves to be separated from ruminant meat production. Finally in section 4, we present a detailed analysis 3 of policy options derived from a disaggregated model that includes all the major products in Norwegian agriculture. In the model-based analysis, we examine first the imposition of a carbon tax, while maintaining existing agricultural support policies and import protection, and achieving the food security (production of calories) target. Since the imposition of a carbon tax in agriculture presents both technical and political challenges, we then examine an alternative approach of changing the existing structure of agricultural support to approximate the same result. We show that it is possible to change current subsidy rates to mimic the carbon tax and calorie target solution. The explanation for this is that ruminant products not only generate high emissions per produced calorie, but they are also the most highly subsidized products. Meat from ruminants is relatively unimportant in achieving Norway’s food security objective of calorie availability.

In the European Union, greenhouse gas emissions statistics indicate only a slight decreasing trend over the last number of years in emissions from agricultural sources. Unless drastic action is taken in other sectors, the European Union’s 2030 and subsequent climate targets are unlikely to be met without greater reductions made in agricultural emissions. The policy instruments aimed at reducing agricultural emissions that are currently in place have proven to be ineffective; therefore, there is a need to look for new approaches towards bringing agricultural emissions down faster and farther. One obvious new approach is to integrate agricultural emissions into the European Union Emissions Trading System, which, so far, has proven very successful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy and industrial sectors. Hardly any attention has been paid in the scholarly legal literature to the question of integrating agricultural GHG emissions into emission trading systems. This article seeks to fill this gap. This paper presents the concluding findings of a Dutch Research Council-funded research project that aimed to assess whether and under what conditions the European Union Emissions Trading System could play a role in compelling the agricultural sector to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. We answered this question by looking at lessons learned from existing examples in the world of market-based approaches to integrating agriculture into emission reduction schemes. To do this, we performed an ex-post assessment of three of the very few examples that exist in the world of such schemes in Canada, California, and Australia, followed by an ex-ante assessment of the prospect of including agricultural emissions under the European Union Emissions Trading System based on the practical experiences of those examples. In the ex-ante study, we evaluated how such inclusion could work, either indirectly, through allowing on-farm offset programs to reward increased carbon sequestration, or directly, by requiring farmers and/or other actors in the agricultural sector to surrender allowances for their direct emissions. As lawyers, we focused mainly on the legal considerations of such a proposition. Having conducted both the ex-ante and ex-post assessments, we conclude that introducing stricter legal instruments of one form or another that will reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon removal on agricultural land seems necessary for the European Union if it is serious about achieving its commitments under the Paris Agreement and meeting its obligations under its own Climate Law. The project makes a novel contribution to the legal scholarship in concluding that the most viable starting point for such stricter legislation would be to include methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock keeping and synthetic fertilizer use, respectively, under the European Union Emissions Trading System. To start with, this could be conducted by obliging meat and dairy processors and synthetic fertilizer producers to surrender allowances for the on-farm emissions associated with their products. This could be complemented by introducing a voluntary, but still highly regulated, carbon credits scheme that could encourage and reward farmers for reducing their own emissions and for transitioning to net-zero, and overall, more climate-resilient and environmentally friendly farming practices. Such credits could be offered for sale on the private carbon market as well as to Member State governments and the European Commission (through, for example, the Common Agricultural Policy, State Aid schemes, or the Innovation Fund).

Energy-related GHG emission in agriculture of the European countries: An application of the Generalized Divisia Index

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) from human activities, are the primary drivers of global warming. Additionally, methane contributes to ozone formation and therefore contributes to air pollution, posing risk to human health. Agriculture is a significant contributor to the global GHG emissions, with methane primarily emitted through enteric fermentation in livestock and manure management practices, while carbon dioxide largely arises from the use of machinery in various land management operations. Hence, to better understand and represent the intra - annual variability of GHG emissions within the agricultural sector, it is crucial to obtain spatial and temporal information about all contributing activities.Within the ARTEMIS project we are further developing and refining a dynamic emission model to capture the spatio-temporal variability of anthropogenic GHG and air pollutant emissions in Germany and its surroundings. Inside the emission model the spatial allocator estimates the total yearly emissions with the gridded GHG emission inventory of TNO - CAMS for Europe and UBA - GRETA for Germany.To account for temporal variability, different agricultural emission activities are parameterized individually. The temporal emission distribution for machinery use during land management operations gets estimated by deriving the emission timings from phenology observation data from the German Weather Service as well as using remote sensed phenology data from the COPERNICUS project. Additionally we incorporate an agricultural timer (Ge et al. 2020, 2022) developed to estimate the start of the growing season, which allows us to derive key dates such as sowing and manure application. The temporal variability of methane emissions from enteric fermentation are parameterized using literature-based emission factors linked to livestock feed intake and animal population data from national statistical agencies.These emission datasets were integrated into a LOTOS-EUROS model simulation to demonstrate their added value. The comparison using the new dynamic emission model indicated an improved representation of intra-annual GHG concentration variability. Furthermore also the depiction of the diurnal concentration cycle showed a better alignment with measured concentrations. Additionally, evaluation against ICOS tall tower measurements revealed improvements in correlation (up to 0.06) and reductions in root mean squared error (up to 15%) between modeled and observed concentrations at nearly all stations. These findings highlight the importance of disentangling the agricultural GHG emissions into seperate subsectors, enabling a more accurate depiction of temporal variability in anthropogenic emissions. We conclude that further improving the spatio-temporal emission information should be extended on other sectors such as the industry and energy, the road traffic or the landfills as well.

Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions — Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia

Net-zero emissions chemical industry in a world of limited resources

Stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from croplands as agricultural demand grows is a critical climate change mitigation strategy. Depending on management, the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector can be both a source as well as a net sink for carbon. Currently, it contributes 25% of the global anthropogenic carbon emissions. Although India’s emissions from this sector are around 8% of the total national GHG emissions, it can contribute significantly to the country’s aspirations of reaching net-zero emissions by 2070. In this review, we explain the carbon footprints of the AFOLU sector in India, focusing on enteric fermentation, fertilizer and manure management, rice paddies, burning of crop residues, forest fires, shifting cultivation, and food wastage. Furthermore, using the standard autoregressive integrated moving average method, we project India’s AFOLU sector emission routes for 2070 under four scenarios: business as usual (BAU) and three emission reduction levels, viz., 10%, 20%, and 40% below BAU. The article focuses on how the AFOLU sector can be leveraged proactively to reach the net-zero emission goals. Increasing forest cover, agroforestry, and other tree-based land-use systems; improving soil health through soil management, better crop residue, and livestock feed management; emission avoidance from rice ecosystems; and reducing food waste are all important strategies for lowering India’s AFOLU sector carbon footprints.

Exploring the nexus between agriculture and greenhouse gas emissions in BIMSTEC region: The role of renewable energy and human capital as moderators

The cultivation industry occupies a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. Assessing greenhouse gas emissions from the cultivation industry is pivotal for mitigating emissions and promoting sustainable cultivation. Utilizing greenhouse gas emission calculation methods recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other methods, this work evaluated annual emissions and the emission structure of major crops from 2005 to 2021 in the Chengdu Plain, a significant agricultural region in Southwest China. We identified nitrogen fertilizer as the primary contributing factor to high emissions from cultivation production. Subsequently, we analyzed the trend and utilization of nitrogen fertilizer, which proposes essential strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The results showed that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the cultivation industry in the Chengdu Plain exhibited a growth, fluctuation, and eventual decline trend from 2005 to 2021. The emissions increased from 5,148,900 t in 2005 to 6,289,700 t in 2009, representing a 22.16% increase, and subsequently decreased to 5,109,900 t in 2021, marking a 23.31% decrease. Nitrogen fertilizer application emerges as the primary source of GHG emissions, constituting approximately half of the total, with nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing contributing significantly as well, collectively amounting to about 70%. We also found that the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions attributed to cash crop cultivation has gradually increased over the last decade. Among these crops, vegetables exhibit the highest emissions, comprising nearly half of the total emissions from 2019 onwards. However, the nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency of cash crops is less than 30%, with higher nitrogen surplus, ammonia volatilization, and nitrogen leaching per unit area, and the total amount is higher than that of grain crops. Among cash crops, vegetables exhibit the highest amount of nitrogen surplus, ammonia volatilization, and nitrogen leaching, constituting nearly half of the total amount in the study area since 2019. Our findings significantly affect sustainable and low-carbon cultivation industry development in the study area.

Abstract. To track progress towards keeping global warming well below 2 ∘C or even 1.5 ∘C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, comprehensive up-to-date and reliable information on anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required. Here we compile a new synthetic dataset on anthropogenic GHG emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. Our dataset is global in coverage and includes CO2 emissions, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, as well as those from fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3) and provides country and sector details. We build this dataset from the version 6 release of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v6) and three bookkeeping models for CO2 emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). We assess the uncertainties of global greenhouse gases at the 90 % confidence interval (5th–95th percentile range) by combining statistical analysis and comparisons of global emissions inventories and top-down atmospheric measurements with an expert judgement informed by the relevant scientific literature. We identify important data gaps for F-gas emissions. The agreement between our bottom-up inventory estimates and top-down atmospheric-based emissions estimates is relatively close for some F-gas species (∼ 10 % or less), but estimates can differ by an order of magnitude or more for others. Our aggregated F-gas estimate is about 10 % lower than top-down estimates in recent years. However, emissions from excluded F-gas species such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are cumulatively larger than the sum of the reported species. Using global warming potential values with a 100-year time horizon from the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global GHG emissions in 2018 amounted to 58 ± 6.1 GtCO2 eq. consisting of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industry (FFI) 38 ± 3.0 GtCO2, CO2-LULUCF 5.7 ± 4.0 GtCO2, CH4 10 ± 3.1 GtCO2 eq., N2O 2.6 ± 1.6 GtCO2 eq., and F-gases 1.3 ± 0.40 GtCO2 eq. Initial estimates suggest further growth of 1.3 GtCO2 eq. in GHG emissions to reach 59 ± 6.6 GtCO2 eq. by 2019. Our analysis of global trends in anthropogenic GHG emissions over the past 5 decades (1970–2018) highlights a pattern of varied but sustained emissions growth. There is high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased every decade, and emissions growth has been persistent across the different (groups of) gases. There is also high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions levels were higher in 2009–2018 than in any previous decade and that GHG emissions levels grew throughout the most recent decade. While the average annual GHG emissions growth rate slowed between 2009 and 2018 (1.2 % yr−1) compared to 2000–2009 (2.4 % yr−1), the absolute increase in average annual GHG emissions by decade was never larger than between 2000–2009 and 2009–2018. Our analysis further reveals that there are no global sectors that show sustained reductions in GHG emissions. There are a number of countries that have reduced GHG emissions over the past decade, but these reductions are comparatively modest and outgrown by much larger emissions growth in some developing countries such as China, India, and Indonesia. There is a need to further develop independent, robust, and timely emissions estimates across all gases. As such, tracking progress in climate policy requires substantial investments in independent GHG emissions accounting and monitoring as well as in national and international statistical infrastructures. The data associated with this article (Minx et al., 2021) can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5566761.

Blue revolution for food security under carbon neutrality: A case from the water-saving and drought-resistance rice