Abstract
Assessing the non-lethal effects of disturbance from human activities is necessary for wildlife conservation and management. However, linking short-term responses to long-term impacts on individuals and populations is a significant hurdle for evaluating the risks of a proposed activity. The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework conceptually describes how disturbance can lead to changes in population dynamics, and its real-world application has led to a suite of quantitative models that can inform risk assessments. Here, we review PCoD models that forecast the possible consequences of a range of disturbance scenarios for marine mammals. In so doing, we identify common themes and highlight general principles to consider when assessing risk. We find that, when considered holistically, these models provide valuable insights into which contextual factors influence a population's degree of exposure and sensitivity to disturbance. We also discuss model assumptions and limitations, identify data gaps and suggest future research directions to enable PCoD models to better inform risk assessments and conservation and management decisions. The general principles explored can help wildlife managers and practitioners identify and prioritize the populations most vulnerable to disturbance and guide industry in planning activities that avoid or mitigate population-level effects.
Highlights
A significant hurdle for wildlife conservation and management is knowing when and how short-term responses to human activities result in biologically meaningful changes that affect population dynamics [1]
The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework was developed to conceptualize how disturbance-induced changes in individual behaviour and physiology affect population dynamics via changes in individual health and vital rates [7,8]. While this framework was developed for use with marine mammals, it is generally applicable across most vertebrates
While our understanding of marine mammal stress physiology and immunology is incomplete [9], bioenergetics has proven to be a useful approach for implementing the PCoD framework [7,10]
Summary
A significant hurdle for wildlife conservation and management is knowing when and how short-term responses to human activities result in biologically meaningful changes that affect population dynamics [1]. The links between behavioural and physiological responses and their long-term individual- and population-level effects are poorly understood, making comprehensive risk assessments difficult [2,7] To address this issue, the Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework was developed to conceptualize how disturbance-induced changes in individual behaviour and physiology affect population dynamics via changes in individual health and vital rates (electronic supplementary material, figure S1) [7,8]. The findings from these disparate models have yet to be synthesized in a single review to guide risk assessments for marine mammals This information can help wildlife managers and practitioners identify and prioritize the populations most vulnerable to disturbance (see decision framework in [22]) and guide industry in planning activities that avoid or mitigate population-level effects. The publications included in the synthesis are provided in the electronic supplementary material, table S1
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