Emerging Technologies and Exponential Change: Implications for Army Transformation

Abstract

Revolutionary technological change on an exponentially growing scale is already here and mandates that the Army institute a continuous transformation process that includes all areas of doctrine, training, leadership, organization, and technology. The continuing wave of technological change is different from even the information technology revolution of the 1990s in two ways. First, it is a vastly more profound transformation due to the synergy of three emerging technologies: bio-engineering, nano-engineering, and robotics and artificial intelligence. Second, it is a revolution that will occur at a speed never seen before. In only the past couple of decades has society begun to comprehend and contemplate the implications of the apparent accelerating pace of change. This progress is not without its costs. Technological innovation is the primary cause of a growing stress in society, where the basic human desire for the comfort of permanence is in direct opposition to a deep need to control and transform the envi ronment in the service of humanity. Technological innovation continually remakes the world and is central to the economic process and cultural beliefs--commonly labeled progress--that drive modem civilization. Yet, it is this need for progress that is the source of the relentless destabilization and disorder experienced by individuals, institutions, governments, and societies. (1) The purpose of this article is to investigate three questions that are critical to the future of the US Army. First, what can be anticipated regarding the nature and pace of future technological change? Second, why is it important for the Army to continuously transform itself in response to increasingly rapid change? Finally, how could the Army respond to this change to manage the growing stress and to balance the need for organizational continuity against the requirement for the constant improvement of effectiveness to assure national security? Broad recommendations to create a continuous transformation process and to link technological innovation to desired institutional outcomes will be offered. Very little effort has been made to understand the interactions between the technological innovations required for progress and the institutional responses ensuing from these innovations. Bear in mind, the sole purpose of technological progress should be the advancement of society in general or, in the case of military technology, the strengthening of total military effectiveness. Therefore, the design of technological innovations must not be merely aimed at the enhancement of technological performance; rather, the technology must be purposefully created to produce a desired overall outcome in the Army and the nation when combined with social, political, and economic factors. What are the technologies driving much of the change in today's globally connected world, and how fast is this change occurring? The current rate of technological change will be briefly examined by observing the speed of change in several different coarse measures of progress. Next, the logic of exponential change will be considered, and why this characteristic of change is only now being recognized. The implications of the accelerating pace of technological progress are far-reaching for all organizations, and the Army cannot escape the dire consequences of failing to adapt. Emerging Technologies My intention is not to predict the particular innovations that will power social and military change for the next 15 to 20 years. However, brief descriptions of the technologies currently thought to have the greatest potential to produce the innovations that will change the world are necessary to consider their links to Army transformation. At present, broad agreement exists among experts about the general direction of the evolution of technology, and it involves three central areas: bio-engineering, nanoscale engineering, and robotics and artificial intelligence. …