Abstract
In fields with high science linkage, such as the nanocarbon field, trends in academic papers are particularly important for identifying future technological trends. The use of the number of citations allows us to predict the qualitative trends on a paper-by-paper basis. At the same time, it is necessary to be able to comprehensively discuss both qualitative and quantitative aspects in the subject area. This study aimed to detect emerging areas in the nanocarbon field using network models and topic models. It was possible to not only construct a model that exceeded an 86.2% F1 measure but also to focus on an area that could not be detected by the prediction model. This was accomplished by focusing on paper units, such as the research on the chemical synthesis of zigzag single-walled carbon nanotubes. Thus, it is possible to obtain knowledge that contributes to diversified R&D strategies and innovation policies by considering the emergence of new fields from multiple perspectives.
Highlights
Academic research trends often help companies formulate research and development (R&D) strategies
This study applied a model that predicts promising papers based on the vast amount of information on 411,084 scientific papers in the nanocarbon field
The purpose of this research was to predict the increase in the number of citations of a paper three years after its publication, based only on information available less than one year after its publication, in order to identify emerging areas earlier. This investigation involved the use of various features, network indicators, and clustering results to predict the increase in the number of citations of a paper several years in advance based on the features immediately after its publication
Summary
Academic research trends often help companies formulate research and development (R&D) strategies. While endeavoring to obtain the overall perspectives of such fields, efforts have been directed toward investigations of what kinds of research will attract attention in the future [10,11,12,13,14]. In fields such as the nanocarbon field where the linkage representing the distance between technology and science is high, the trends of academic papers are important for identifying future technological trends.
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