Emerging Applications of Decision Support Systems (DSS) in Crisis Management

Abstract

The recent financial crisis, the growth of the frequency of extreme risk events are motivations for a new analysis of the mechanisms and processes that implies high risk and high uncertainty. The new dynamics and the severe impact of the extreme events (natural hazards, terrorism, technological accidents, and economic/financial crises), but also the complexity of interventions have motivated the scientific community to find new efficient solutions for decision making process dedicated for crisis management, especially for solving the following aspects: time urgency, the complexity of event, the volatility/ rapidly changing of event/ decision conditions, the chaotic surrounding environment ingredient, the human behaviour in critical situations (emotional stress), the consequences for decision failure, poor data, frequent interruption during the decision making process. Extreme risk events are no longer only high impact low probability events. Indeed, the literature demonstrates that these types of events are more frequent and also their impact is also more critical. The governments are responsible not only for the post crisis management of extreme events. In this case, better knowledge could offer opportunities to reduce the impact. Emerging aspects regarding the integration of the concept of hybrid DSS in the treatment of extreme risk management will be presented. The efficiency of using intelligent ingredients in decision support systems (DSS) is linked to the human limits but also on the dynamics of huge data in the context of imprecision and uncertainty. Different applications for the use of hybrid DSS in flood and drought risk management, asymmetric risk and crisis management exercises will be also presented. Many extreme risk events are associated with modern human environment and in this case the spectrum of risks is changed with a difference between the perceived possibility and reality (Renn, 1992). Extreme risk is expressed by the potential for the realization of unwanted, adverse consequences to human life, health, property, or the environment. In Kaplan, Garrick (1981) is proposed the risk triplet (S-scenario, P-likelihood, D-possible consequence), a framework that responds to the nature of disaster events that can occur, how likely is a particular event, what are the consequences. Decision makers in extreme risk environments should respond in a new different manner because modern crisis management requires urgent developments toward better, more elaborated and appropriate means for extreme risks. Extreme risk management needs to