Abstract
AbstractEl Niño, as the dominant interannual variability for global climate, exhibits different spatial “flavors” with distinct global impacts, and the ensemble of current model projects there will be an increase in the frequency of central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) in a warmer world. In this study, we identified that future changes in CP El Niño frequency are significantly related to the simulated cold tongue strength in CMIP5/6 models. A model simulating a stronger cold tongue tends to project more frequent CP El Niño events under global warming, due to the positive zonal advection feedback in the central Pacific. Based on this relationship, we calibrate the CP El Niño frequency projections using the emergent constraint concept and reveal that the changes in CP El Niño frequency under global warming as projected in previous multimodel ensembles more likely decrease because of an excessive cold tongue in CMIP5/6 models.
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