Emergency Systems and Power Outage Restoration Due to Infrastructure Damage from Major Floods and Disasters

Abstract

ABSTRACTI examine extreme events where one major consequence is damage to infrastructure causing failures and loss of electrical power to vital systems, and restoration may take several days to weeks. We need to know how long it will take to restore power and design robust emergency backup that is especially important for major population centers, critical facilities, and essential industrial equipment. This coupled systems engineering problem involves the restoration of the initial outages depending on the damage caused and the reliability of emergency power and backup systems. I first review my prior work using extensive data for the prediction of power restoration probability and timing using publicly available data for severe and unexpected events. The events cover a wide spectrum of hurricanes, wildfires, ice storms, floods, cyclones, and tsunamis for multiple power distribution systems and countries, where attempts to avoid prolonged failure and ensure restoration deploy emergency crews, procedures, and extensive recovery equipment. Significant infrastructure damage, access difficulty, and societal disruption delays restoration. The resulting universal correlations show that emergency restoration probability and timing are independent of event type, depending on the degree of difficulty as restoration occurs as fast as humanly possible.Systems design and recovery processes should all learn from these previous disasters. Because of the potential for significant delays and extended power outages, critical facilities and commercial enterprises deploy emergency or backup power systems. I provide a detailed analysis of the probability of emergency system restoration and determine the needed response time and reliability requirements. The analysis then derives integral emergency system failure rates by comparing the (a) emergency power restoration data for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station events that resulted from unprecedented flooding due to an unexpected tsunami from a major earthquake, and with (b) the analogous extended loss of pumping power due to the massive flooding of New Orleans, US‐LA by Hurricane Katrina. This new analysis quantifies the chance of restoration using systems engineering and emergency measures and replaces the frequently used qualitative system resilience terminology for coping with severe events.