Abstract
Abstract A better understanding of the forecast uncertainties and risks resulting from potential droughts and sudden water pollution is important in reservoir operations. In this study, we formulated water supply uncertainties and then evaluated risks related to droughts and sudden water pollution. A case study was then performed with the Danjiangkou Reservoir and emergency operation rules were proposed for water supply in dry seasons through the trial and error method. The results show that the reservoir inflow and water pollution location have a significant effect on emergency operations for water supply. However, insufficient reservoir inflow can make the situation worse, resulting in a reduction or even cessation of water supply and consequently enormous economic losses. The water supply problem could be alleviated to some extent with the increase of distance between the pollution location and the reservoir release gate. The proposed emergency operation rules considering forecast uncertainties and risks resulting from potential droughts and sudden water pollution may provide important insights into reservoir water supply in dry seasons.
Highlights
Water resources have become so depleted in recent years that they are unable to meet the ever-increasing demands from the industrial, domestic, agricultural and eco-environmental sectors (Falkenmark ; Wu ; Chen et al )
In Case 1, water can be transferred from Taocha as planned and the emergency operation depends on the Danjiangkou Reservoir (DJKR) dam; whereas in Case 2, the Taocha gate plays a critical role in regulating and controlling the sudden water pollution by decreasing the discharge, because the flow velocity in the majority of the reservoir is almost zero except that near the inlet and outlet
Water-supply reservoirs must first satisfy downstream domestic and ecological water demands in the case of insufficient reservoir inflow, and emergency operation rules would be unworkable when the reservoir water level is below the lower limit
Summary
Water resources have become so depleted in recent years that they are unable to meet the ever-increasing demands from the industrial, domestic, agricultural and eco-environmental sectors (Falkenmark ; Wu ; Chen et al ). The uncertainty induced by population growth, increasing water demand, limited management models, sudden water pollution accidents and possible drought events makes it difficult for reservoir operations to achieve the optimum performance (Jia et al ; You & Yu ; Ghimire & Reddy ; Haddad et al ; Liu et al a, b; Zhao & Zhao a, b). This effect appears to be more pronounced in dry seasons than in flood seasons. This is followed by a case study of the Danjiangkou Reservoir, and the proposed emergency operation rules
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