Emergency decision-making under an uncertain time limit

Abstract

We investigate emergency decision-making behaviors in the face of life losses under an uncertain time limit. We design a behavioral experiment with the background of a hypothetical disaster to investigate the subjects' decision strategies. We find that prior experience affects a subject's estimation and actual consumption of time on comparing the rescue options in the following disaster. We also observe a risk shift that when an uncertain time limit is imposed, most risk-averse subjects with no time limit exhibit risk-taking behaviors. Moreover, under more intense time pressure, subjects are more likely to adopt heuristics such as seeking the best outcome with the highest probability, seeking the best while avoiding the unacceptable worst, and achieving a satisficing result with a target probability. As time pressure relaxes, most subjects perform actuarial calculations to compare the available options. We recommend emergency managers to be cautioned against the anchoring effect of prior experience and the heuristics of seeking the possibility of saving more people (which could pose an unwarranted risk).