Emergence, survival, and segregation of competing gangs.

Abstract

In this paper, we approach the phenomenon of criminal activity from an infectious perspective by using tailored compartmental agent-based models that include the social flavor of the mechanisms governing the evolution of crime in society. Specifically, we focus on addressing how the existence of competing gangs shapes the penetration of crime. The mean-field analysis of the model proves that the introduction of dynamical rules favoring the simultaneous survival of both gangs reduces the overall number of criminals across the population as a result of the competition between them. The implementation of the model in networked populations with homogeneous contact patterns reveals that the evolution of crime substantially differs from that predicted by the mean-field equations. We prove that the system evolves toward a segregated configuration where, depending on the features of the underlying network, both gangs can form spatially separated clusters. In this scenario, we show that the beneficial effect of the coexistence of two gangs is hindered, resulting in a higher penetration of crime in the population.