Embracing plant–plant interactions—Rethinking predictions of species range shifts

Abstract

Abstract Interactions among plants are changing across the globe resulting from a multitude of changes in the environment. Obtaining accurate predictions of plant species' range dynamics requires us to account for plant–plant interactions, but this remains challenging using the existing species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques. Advanced SDM techniques facilitate the integration of plant species interactions based on species‐to‐species associations. However, for uncharted environmental conditions in which the formerly derived species' correlations potentially no longer hold, a more process‐based alternative is expected to become increasingly relevant. We first review the most common SDM techniques that integrate plant–plant interactions and then present the concept for a novel map product: a spatial plant–plant interaction index (PII) depicting the link between a focal species’ performance and the trait signature of the interacting vegetation. The latest developments in remote sensing and the increasing availability of vegetation plot data facilitate PII mapping based on vegetation trait–environment relationships. Synthesis: PII mapping holds the potential to advance next‐generation biogeographical analyses as it can serve as a pivotal missing covariate layer necessary for the integration of plant–plant interactions into SDM applications. This data product adds flexibility to the ecologists’ toolbox to analyse species range shifts and the formation of novel communities as a response to multiple environmental changes.