Embrace or repress? Explaining China’s responses to nationalism in international incidents

Abstract

As China’s power grows, a widespread perception is that China is more willing to respond to nationalist demands and act assertively in international incidents. In reality, China has not supported and accommodated nationalism in all events but has cooled down nationalism in some cases. An important unanswered question is, why does the Chinese government demonstrate selectivity when responding to nationalism and take different foreign policies concerning nationalism in various incidents? This article provides a coherent and testable framework to answer this question and uses five cases to test the congruence and validity of the analytical framework. The core argument is that the primary concern of the Chinese government in dealing with nationalism is its legitimacy. When policymakers perceive severe threats to China’s regime security and stability, they will open a ‘safety valve’ to embrace nationalism, allowing nationalism to unleash its anger under the government’s monitor and escalating disputes to defend national interests and appease nationalism. When there are few threats to the regime, three factors will affect China’s choice: the economic value of the diplomatic relationship, elements of China’s core interests, and the viability of reaching an agreement that sets aside the dispute.