Elucidating long-term trends, seasonal variability, and local impacts from thirteen years of near-road particle size data (2006–2019)

Abstract

Significant attention, especially in the last decade, has been focussed on elevated concentrations of ultrafine particulate matter (UFP) in urban areas and the adverse health effects associated with exposure to UFP. Despite this, there is a relative scarcity of long-term ambient UFP measurements. This study examined trends in UFP measurements made continuously near a busy roadway in downtown Toronto, Canada, between the years 2006 and 2019 using a fast mobility particle sizer (FMPS). These long-term trends were associated with other air pollutant concentrations—namely: nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and fine particulate matter mass concentrations (PM2.5)—and persistent declining trends were observed for each during the study period. From 2006 to 2019, reductions of 45%, 68%, 39%, 83%, and 41%, for UFP, NO, NO2, SO2, and PM2.5, respectively, were observed. These reductions are in part associated with a total phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation in Ontario, Canada, between 2004 and 2015, and continuous improvements in vehicle emissions control technologies. Additionally, deconvolution of the time-series yielded seasonal fluctuations which were analysed as a function of particle diameter and ambient temperature, the results from which may aid in the comparison of UFP measurements made in climates with different ambient temperature ranges in a meaningful way. Finally, the UFP data were background-subtracted and it was found that local sources (such as vehicle traffic) contributed ~45% to total concentrations and this fraction remained relatively constant throughout the study. A multilinear function regressed on these local and background concentrations better elucidated the sources contributing to UFP variability—background concentrations were largely covariate with SO2 emissions whereas local concentrations were more affected by NO emissions. The data in this study shows clear co-benefits to reducing UFP concentrations by targeting NOx and SOx emissions.