Elman and Feed-Forward Neural Networks with Different Training Algorithms for Solar Radiation Forecasting: A Comparison with a Case Study

Abstract

In order to estimate daily solar radiation, this paper proposes Elman (ENN) and Feed forward backpropagation (FNN) neural networks. The time series data from the location of Kenitra City, Morocco is used to train the created models. Fletcher-Powell Conjugate Gradient (CGF), Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG), Resilient Backpropagation (RB), Conjugate gradient with Powell-Beale restarts (CGB), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), Polak-Ribi´ere Conjugate Gradient (CGP), and One Step Secant (OSS) are also used with both, the ENN and FNN to identify the best and effective training function for each. The models with various training algorithms are tested by using evaluation metrics root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The study showed that the Elman Neural Network had an excellent daily solar radiation prediction for Kenitra city. Good results have been obtained with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm.