Elite Coalitions and Power Balance across African Regimes: Introducing the African Cabinet and Political Elite Data Project (ACPED)

Abstract

This article presents ACPED- the African Cabinet and Political Elite Data project. This project is a disaggregated set of cabinet ministers and positions by country month from 1997 into real time. Political representation of groups across Africa is often portrayed as a result of static, predictable ethno-demographic arithmetic. An associated perception is that regimes are ethnically exclusive as leaders over-represent co-ethnics, close allies and some strong challengers as a coup-proofing exercise. This paper measures the heterogenous political environments developing across African states, and presents evidence that African states are largely ethnically and regionally inclusive in formal political positions, with relatively low levels of co-ethnic favoritism and large group dominance. In modern autocracies and transitioning democracies, leaders select cabinet coalitions of elites that broadly inclusive, but distort the levels of power groups and elites enjoy within senior ranks. All ministers and ministries experience significant volatility, in line with how regimes manage, maintain and limit the influence of inclusive coalitions. In short, leaders keep power by spreading it around, but limiting the chances of others to capture it.