Abstract
# Background To determine whether aggregated searches for pregnancy prevention or pregnancy termination predicts US State teenage birth rates. # Methods US birth rate data for the 50 states, and search engine query data (Google Trends) for "condom" and "abortion" were used in an ecological analysis. Multivariable ordinary least squares regression was used to predict state-level birth rates from state-level searches for condom and abortion. # Results The final model accounted for 35% of the variance (R^2^=0.347). Abortion and condom had similar, absolute, standardized parameters (β≈0.5). High state-levels of searches for abortion were associated with higher teenage birth rates, whereas high state-levels of searches for condom were associated with lower teenage birth rates. # Conclusions Google Trends data for abortion and condom can be used to model US state-levels teenage birth rates. This raises the possibility of well targeted, accessible and relevant information for populations wanting to avoid unwanted pregnancies.
Highlights
To determine whether aggregated searches for pregnancy prevention or pregnancy termination predicts US State teenage birth rates
High state-levels of searches for abortion were associated with higher teenage birth rates, whereas high state-levels of searches for condom were associated with lower teenage birth rates
Search engine query data (SEQD) include the information collected by search engine companies about search terms used, geographical location, and the date of the search
Summary
US birth rate data for the 50 states, and search engine query data (Google Trends) for “condom” and “abortion” were used in an ecological analysis. Given the broad nature of sexual and reproductive health, and the volume and range of results using more general terms like contraception, sex and sexually transmissible infections (STIs), we restricted the search to as narrow a range as possible that would still reflect the question of interest. In imposing this narrow focus, we acknowledge that instances of other searches that relate to termination of pregnancy and contraception would be lost. 10 The birth rates were reported per 1000 estimated women in the age range 15–19 in each state Centers for Disease Control, National Vital Statistics Report. 10 The birth rates were reported per 1000 estimated women in the age range 15–19 in each state (p. 42)
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