Abstract
The practical elicitation of expert beliefs is considered through two contrasting examples. The first example concerns elicitation of engineers' prior beliefs about various quantities relating to the future capital investment need of a water company. Prior beliefs needed to be elicited about very many quantities, but only in the form of prior means, variances and covariances. A computerized procedure was required that could be routinely used by engineers, unsupervised. The second example is a single, application-specific elicitation of the beliefs of hydrogeologists about properties of certain rocks. A full probability specification was ideally to be obtained from a two-day intensive, supervised, elicitation with several experts together. The two different approaches used for these problems are described and contrasted, but a common principle of trying to identify and elicit separately the various sources of expert uncertainty is identified
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician)
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
