Elevation of Early Plasma Biomarkers in Patients with Clinical Risk Factors Predicts Increased Nonrelapse Mortality after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Abstract

Early prediction of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) based on the results of laboratory tests is challenging. Thus, there is a need to evaluate biomarkers for prediction of NRM, a major problem that offsets the advantages of allo-HSCT. We tested the validity and efficacy of 2 plasma biomarkers, ST2 and Reg3α, based on the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) algorithm, for early prediction of NRM in Japanese patients who underwent allo-HSCT. We conducted a multicenter retrospective study to analyze the clinical data of 112 patients with hematopoietic malignancies who underwent allo-HSCT. Patient blood samples on day 7 after allo-HSCT were obtained from 6 hospitals. The plasma concentrations of ST2 and Reg3α were used to calculate a 6-month NRM risk score. Based on the scores determined in this study, we identified 64 low-risk patients and 48 high-risk patients for the 6-month NRM. The cumulative incidence of 6-month NRM was 29.2% in the high-risk group and 10.9% in the low-risk group (P < .05). The cumulative incidence of relapse mortality was similar in the high-risk and low-risk patients. The biomarker score was predictive in patients with an unrelated donor, an HLA-mismatched donor, high/very high Disease Risk Index, and Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Comorbidity Index ≥1. Multivariate analysis identified high biomarker probability as a significant predictor of NRM. The MAGIC algorithm based on blood samples obtained at 7 days after allo-HSCT can identify individuals at high risk for NRM among patients with clinical risk factors for NRM in a Japanese cohort.