Elevated Alfa-Fetoprotein and Des-Gamma-Carboxy Prothrombin Levels Predict Poor Outcomes After Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Beyond the Japan Criteria

Abstract

The Japan criteria (Milan criteria+5-5-500 rule) was established recently to select cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation. We evaluated factors associated with poor prognosis after liver transplantation and investigated whether a further extension of the criteria would be worthwhile. We retrospectively analyzed 86 patients who underwent liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma at Kumamoto University Hospital since 2004; 69 patients (80.2%) met the Japan criteria (the JCIN group), and 17 patients (19.8%) did not (the JCOUT group). The 5-year cancer-specific survival rates of the JCIN group (92.2%) were significantly better than that of the JCOUT group (39.2%; P < .001). In univariable analysis, alfa-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin were significant independent factors associated with cancer-specific survival rates. According to the receiver operating characteristic curves, the cutoff values of alfa-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin that predicted hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation were 756 ng/mL and 1976 mAU/mL, respectively. The JCOUT group was divided into 2 subgroups according to alfa-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin: low risk (alfa-fetoprotein level <756 ng/mL and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin level <1976 mAU/mL) and high risk (alfa-fetoprotein level ≥756 ng/mL and/or des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin level ≥1976 mAU/mL). The 5-year cancer-specific survival rate in the low-risk group (67.5%) was significantly better than that in the high-risk group (0%; P < .001). Alfa-fetoprotein levels of <756 ng/mL and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin levels of <1976 mAU/mL may help identify cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who do not meet the Japan criteria but still benefit from liver transplantation.