Abstract
As the climate warms, species that cannot tolerate changing conditions will only persist if they undergo range shifts. Redistribution ability may be particularly variable for benthic marine species that disperse as pelagic larvae in ocean currents. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, has recently experienced a warming-related range contraction in the southeastern USA and may face limitations to northward range shifts within the Gulf of Maine where dominant coastal currents flow southward. Thus, blue mussels might be especially vulnerable to warming, and understanding dispersal patterns is crucial given the species' relatively long planktonic larval period (>1 month). To determine whether trace elemental “fingerprints” incorporated in mussel shells could be used to identify population sources (i.e. collection locations), we assessed the geographic variation in shell chemistry of blue mussels collected from seven populations between Cape Cod, Massachusetts and northern Maine. Across this ∼500 km of coastline, we were able to successfully predict population sources for over two-thirds of juvenile individuals, with almost 80% of juveniles classified within one site of their collection location and 97% correctly classified to region. These results indicate that significant differences in elemental signatures of mussel shells exist between open-coast sites separated by ∼50 km throughout the Gulf of Maine. Our findings suggest that elemental “fingerprinting” is a promising approach for predicting redistribution potential of the blue mussel, an ecologically and economically important species in the region.
Highlights
Recent increases in mean and extreme temperatures have been implicated in driving local populations and range-restricted species to extinction, and species extinctions may become increasingly common in the century
To determine whether the composition of trace metals, present in the water column and incorporated into mussel shells [28], is distinct between populations inhabiting the Gulf of Maine, we examined our ability to reclassify juvenile and adult mussels to known collection locations based on their geochemical signatures
Our results show that trace element fingerprinting based on shell chemistry can be used to successfully identify the population source for blue mussels in the Gulf of Maine, an advective, opencoastal system
Summary
Recent increases in mean and extreme temperatures have been implicated in driving local populations and range-restricted species to extinction, and species extinctions may become increasingly common in the century (see [1,2,3]). Persistence of blue mussels in the Gulf of Maine may increasingly require northward range shifts, towards habitats that are cooler on average, as well as the ‘‘rescue’’ of more coldadapted populations via re-seeding from more heat-tolerant populations [13],[14]. It is unknown whether mussels can disperse northward in the region against the predominantly southward flowing coastal currents [15,16,17]. There would likely be severe ecological and economic impacts if blue mussel populations declined and, if the species became unable to persist in the Gulf of Maine. Blue mussels are consumed by humans, with over 6 million pounds – amounting to $7 million – harvested in the USA in 2011, and almost 90% of USA mussel landings on record coming from the Gulf of Maine [22]
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