Abstract
Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%.
Highlights
The radiation belts consist of energetic particles trapped by the terrestrial magnetic field and were discovered from the first in situ space radiation measurements
This study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution
This is due to changes in the structure of the terrestrial magnetic field, where the compressed dayside leads to an increase in the strength of the magnetic field compared to the nightside
Summary
The radiation belts consist of energetic particles trapped by the terrestrial magnetic field and were discovered from the first in situ space radiation measurements. The outer radiation belt is made up of trapped electrons ranging in energy from keVs to several MeVs. The high fluence of these energetic electrons can cause a number of problems on spacecraft depending on the electron energy. Since we do not have a complete understanding of the physics, radiation belt models based on first principals struggle to capture the variable dynamics of the system [Horne et al, 2013b]. As such, these models often exhibit large errors between the forecast and the observed electron population [Horne et al, 2013a]
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