Electrification with flexibility towards local energy decarbonization

Abstract

• Local energy emissions (LEE) model simulates emissions from various sectors. • Local energy optimization (LEO) model achieves a flattened demand profile. • Local energy electrification is a feasible solution for the UK 2035 emission target. • Greater efforts of at least 46% residential heat pump installation is needed by 2035. • Electrification induces a tripled peak demand, the flexibility reduces the increment to double. On the way towards Net Zero and considering new disruptive technologies may not be ready at scale in the near term, we investigated the role that electrifying local energy systems (LES) could play via coordination across local electricity, heating, transport, and buildings sectors. A representative case in Wales was investigated as the UK recently set a near-term target to reduce 78% emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2035. To do so, we firstly developed a local energy emissions model to simulate whether an electrified LES could achieve the emission target. Then, we developed a local energy optimization model to address the induced significant increment of peak demand. The case study revealed that decarbonizing the local heating sector is vital and challenging based on the UK current initiatives while a greater effort to achieve at least 46% residence installing heat pumps is needed by 2035. Compared to the existing level, the peak electricity demand after electrification would be more than tripled without flexibility. In contrast, the peak electricity demand would only be less than doubled with flexibility. Overall, through the proposed two models, this study demonstrates electrification as a feasible solution to achieve deep decarbonization and further implies flexibility is the key in electrification with huge cost-saving potential in upgrading electricity networks.