Electricity market price forecasting using ELM and Bootstrap analysis: A case study of the German and Finnish Day-Ahead markets

Abstract

Electricity market liberalization and the absence of cost-efficient energy storage technologies have led to the transformation of state-owned electricity companies into complex electricity market entities, each having a different time horizon. Deregulation has intensified competition, giving rise to increased uncertainty caused by a multitude of interrelated exogenous factors, resulting in unexpected fluctuations in electricity prices. As a consequence, market participants encounter elevated risks and seek effective mitigation strategies. In this paper, the challenges described in the literature are addressed by studying price distribution histograms in the German and Finnish electricity markets. The objective is to identify normal price intervals that can serve as a foundation for an integrated Day-Ahead price forecasting methodology. A novel approach utilizing the Extreme Learning Machine in combination with Bootstrap intervals is proposed and applied to both markets. The findings demonstrate that Bootstrap intervals effectively capture normal prices, whereas extremely high prices typically align with the upper limits of Bootstrap intervals. Conversely, negative prices tend to fall outside the lower boundaries of the intervals. In order to assess the performance of the proposed methodology, a comparative analysis of its forecasting accuracy against the well-established Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average models is conducted. In addition, both the computational efficiency and forecasting accuracy of the Extreme Learning Machine in comparison to the Artificial Neural Network are assessed. The results reveal the superior efficiency of the Extreme Learning Machine. The developed forecasting model could potentially assist market participants in making well-informed decisions and executing optimal bidding strategies in response to various scenarios before the Day-Ahead market closes. Notably, the proposed methodology transcends the limitations of fixed price thresholds and effectively addresses market nuances, including the occurrence of negative prices, thus offering a more comprehensive approach for electricity price forecasting.