Abstract
The forecast of electricity consumption plays a fundamental role in the environmental impact of a tourist destination. Poor forecasting, under certain circumstances, can lead to huge economic losses and air pollution, as prediction errors usually have a large impact on the utilisation of fossil fuel-generation plants. Due to the seasonality of tourism, consumption in areas where the industry represents a big part of the economic activity follows a different pattern than in areas with a more regular economic distribution. The high economic impact and seasonality of the tourist activity suggests the use of variables specific to it to improve the electricity demand forecast. This article presents a Holt–Winters model with a tourism indicator to improve the effectiveness on the electricity demand forecast in the Balearic Islands (Spain). Results indicate that the presented model improves the accuracy of the prediction by 0.3%. We recommend the use of this type of model and indicator in tourist destinations where tourism accounts for a substantial amount of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), we can control a significant amount of the flow of tourists and the electrical balance is controlled mainly by fossil fuel power plants.
Highlights
Tourism is growing worldwide, as is its environmental impact on tourist destinations
This paper focuses on Holt–Winters’ methods, as they are very efficient in electricity demand forecasting, due to their simplicity and accuracy on time series with a strong seasonal effect [60]
Tourism has been a powerful tool for local destination development, social concern about its environmental impact is raising questions about the overall benefits of touristic activities at a local level [76]
Summary
As is its environmental impact on tourist destinations. Evaluating the impact of tourism goes further than evaluating the economic facet; it must take into account both its environmental and social dimensions [1,2]. Positive and negative impacts on biodiversity, erosion and physical damage, pollution, resources or landscape change have been reported [3]. The extent and nature of the environmental impact of tourism is related to the magnitude of the development and the volume of visitors, and to the spatial and temporal concentration of tourism activities [4]. Accurate forecasting of visitors allows to allocate the appropriate resources benefiting the sustainable development of tourism destinations [5]. The vast majority of services require it to function, and have great economic and environmental impact
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