Electricity Consumption Forecast of Zhejiang Based on the Background of Electric Energy Substitution

Abstract

At present, Zhejiang State Grid Corporation is advancing the “two transformations” and building a global energy Internet into a critical period. The company’s development faces new situations such as economic transformation and upgrading, the decline in demand for electricity, and the acceleration of power reform, and it is timely to promote electric energy replacement. Therefore, quantitative analysis of the influencing factors of Zhejiang’s electric energy substitution potential is of great significance for the correct implementation of electric energy substitution policy in Zhejiang, promoting the level of electric energy replacement development, and improving the accuracy of regional electricity consumption prediction. Taking the electricity consumption of the whole society in Zhejiang from 2000 to 2017 as an example, this paper fully considers the important indicators such as terminal electric energy substitution, regional GDP, population, and terminal electric energy consumption in Zhejiang, based on multiple linear regression (MDL) and the network model, which are constructed by a simple combined forecasting model and a variance-covariance combined forecasting model to predict and analyze the total social electricity consumption in Zhejiang. The results show that the variance-covariance combined forecasting model has better prediction accuracy. The method is applied to the electricity consumption forecast in the next four years in Zhejiang, and the forecast results are on the rise, which is consistent with the trend of Xinjiang electric energy replacement development.