Abstract
In this paper we present a novel composite methodology for obtaining spatial projections of the impacts and opportunities arising from the integration of plug-in electric vehicles with future smart electricity grids. We link models of future plug-in electric vehicle uptake, travel by household members, household electricity demand, and recharge of electric vehicles. The analysis is disaggregated in each case to a mesh block or local government area level; vehicle usage and household energy demand fluctuate on a hourly, daily and seasonal basis, subject also to the longer-term trends projected for uptake of the new technology. A similarly fine grain is applied with respect to socio-economic variables. The uptake model combines features of choice modelling, multi-criteria analysis and technology diffusion theory; in this case it was applied to four competing technologies (BEV, PHEV, HEV, ICE), and calibration revealed seven major determinants of uptake: performance, annual costs, purchase cost, household income, driving distance, demographic suitability, and risk or inconvenience. The travel model projects likely patterns of vehicle usage and travel duration based on existing patterns of private vehicle usage. The household demand model includes detailed representation of housing type and usage of electrical appliances. The charge-discharge model embodies plausible algorithms for managing household electricity usage in conjunction with electric vehicle batteries. In the paper we describe the various models and report projected impacts of electric vehicles on peak electrical grid loads for the Australian state of Victoria. The impacts are presented on a spatial basis, to the level of individual mesh blocks and network feeders, under a range of energy management scenarios.
Highlights
Most of the world‟s major vehicle manufacturers are currently developing plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) for the mass market
Two types of plug-in EVs are coming to market soon, or are on the horizon: battery-only electric vehicles which run entirely on a battery charged from the grid (BEVs), and plugin hybrid electric vehicles which can run on batteries charged from the grid alone (PHEVs), liquid fuel, or a combination of both
The model of BEV travel behaviour is based on data from a Victorian State government activity survey (VISTA), and data on traffic volumes provided by the agency responsible for main roads (VicRoads)
Summary
Most of the world‟s major vehicle manufacturers are currently developing plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) for the mass market. For typical battery sizes and Australian driving patterns, these two EV types may require between 2 kWh and 20 kWh of electrical energy per vehicle from the grid if widely adopted for passenger transport [2]. This represents a significant potential increase in electrical load on the grid which needs to be planned for in the future. It is assumed here that EVs are charged only at home (“ondriveway”), excluding recharge at places of work, parking stations, or at special recharge stations
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