Abstract
This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV) in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China), analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives.
Highlights
The last two decades saw the significant development of the economy and society in China as well as increasing demand for energy and CO2 emissions due to the rapid growth
The Passenger Vehicle Consumer Choice Model (PVCCM) is designed to forecast consumer choice choice probabilities, which is equal to market shares, of vehicle technologies based on vehicle probabilities, which is equal to market shares, of vehicle technologies based on vehicle attributes and attributes and estimate the corresponding changes in energy consumption and CO2 emission
This research focuses on the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in the private passenger vehicle market and the impact of technological turnover in the vehicle fleet on the energy consumption structure and CO2 emissions of the passenger vehicle sector in Beijing
Summary
The last two decades saw the significant development of the economy and society in China as well as increasing demand for energy and CO2 emissions due to the rapid growth. The COP21 Paris agreement was built on voluntary emissions reduction pledges for 2020 [2]. China has submitted its national climate pledge (so-called Intended National Determined Contribution or INDC) that the CO2 emissions will peak around 2030, and China will make a positive effort to reach the target as soon as possible. This means the main energy-related sectors, such as power, building and transport, have to explore decarbonization transition pathways
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