Electric vehicle diffusion in the Portuguese automobile market

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe present research focuses on electric vehicles as part of the Portuguese policy to make the transportation system more energy efficient and environmentally friendly. The main goal is to estimate the fleetwide energy consumption and corresponding carbon dioxide emissions up to 2030 and examine to what extent the introduction of electric vehicles will reduce those indicators. A system dynamics model of the Portuguese car fleet was developed that captures the inter relationships between the main drivers of the system while simulating the car owners’ behavior when selecting technologies. To analyze the evolution of energy consumption and carbon emissions, a scenario analysis is followed. In addition, a series of transportation policy instruments is tested in each scenario in order to analyze reduction effectiveness of emissions and increasing diffusion of electric vehicles. We concluded that a fast-growing economy is the best scenario to decrease energy consumption mostly due to the expected increa...