Abstract
The weather has an important impact on the failure probability of components of power systems and on the time interval of pre-arranged maintenance. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the reliability of distribution networks considering the impact of the weather. In this paper, weather condition models suitable for evaluating the probability of component failure and the pre-arranged maintenance are constructed based on the degree of influence of the main weather elements on them. Further, based on historical reliability data and meteorological data, a component failure model and a pre-arranged maintenance model considering weather conditions and their impact on the health of a component are proposed. The case study on an actual distribution network in Nanjing, China shows the effectiveness and merit of the proposed method.
Highlights
The electric distribution system (EDS) is responsible for the supply and distribution of electricity to final users [1], [2]
ACCURACY ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED METHOD To test the validity of the proposed method, we evaluate the reliability of the studied EDS in 2017 by the proposed algorithm and compared it with the actual statistics
We proposed a framework for evaluating and predicting the EDS reliability considering the impact of weather via the interaction of the weather condition models and the models for component failure and pre-arranged maintenance
Summary
The electric distribution system (EDS) is responsible for the supply and distribution of electricity to final users [1], [2]. Select certain numbers of weather elements that have greater impacts on component failure and pre-arranged maintenance to form weather conditions suitable for the analysis of them; 3) Based on the weather conditions, the reliability analysis models, including the component failure model (equations (4)-(6)) and the component pre-arranged maintenance model (equation (7)) can be built; 4) Obtain the weather forecast for the period during which reliability assessment is to be performed; 5) Input the predicted weather into the reliability analysis models constructed in step (3), and calculate the failure rates, restoration times, and maintenance intervals of components; 6) Calculate the reliability indices of the EDS using the Monte Carlo method
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