Electric Power Data as Indexes of Business Fluctuations

Abstract

T HOUGH generally accepted as indicative of business activity, figures on the production and use of electric power are seldom intensively utilized in analyses of the business s'ituation. The chief compilations are indeed faithfully reported, and as a rule the various composite indexes of business conditions make sure to include electric power as one constituent; but when it comes to current interpretation and analysis of business activity, not a great deal is made of the data. In part this comparative neglect may be ascribed to difficulties in the way of properly correcting the figures, among which the difficulty of making due allowance for normal growth is perhaps preeminent; but in part it seems to reflect uncertainty as to the precise significance and worth of the different figures available. In the present study it is proposed, therefore, to examine three outstanding series monthly production as reported by the United States Geological Survey, weekly production as reported by the National Electric Light Association, and monthly consumption as reported by Electrical Worldwith respect both to their statistical content and reliability and to their past performance as indicators of business or industrial activity.