Electric passenger vehicles sales and carbon dioxide emission reduction potential in China’s leading markets

Abstract

Abstract This study summarizes the annual sales and market trends of plug-in electric vehicles in China from 2011 to 2017 at the national and ronal levels. The major performance characteristics of top-selling plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) models sold in China are summarized. Then, incentive policies of PEV adoption are explored at the provincial level in China. Approximately 70% of the total PEV model sales have lower all-electric ranges and battery capacity than average in the top 5 provinces that have sold the most battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Sales by make and model in these top 5 provinces are used to estimate ronal electricity consumption, gasoline replacement and carbon dioxide reductions. From 2011 to 2017, 682,047 PEVs have been sold in the 5 provinces, with 18.3 billion electric vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). 3.0 TWh of electricity were consumed, reducing gasoline consumption by 1.6 billion liters and CO2 emissions by 611,824 tons. Approximately 70% of the total gasoline replacement and 80% of the total CO2 emissions reduction were contributed by BEVs. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to assess the impacts of certain parameters on the results.