Electric load prediction based on a novel combined interval forecasting system

Abstract

Under the trend of the global green and low-carbon transformation, accurate prediction of electric load is an urgent problem for all countries to maintain the normal operation of production and living activities. Currently, a large number of models based on single-point forecasting of electric load have emerged. However, these models are limited by the high randomness of electric load data, which restricts the further improvement of prediction accuracy. To fill this gap, a CElif (Combined Electric Load Interval Forecasting) system is proposed in this paper, which contains decomposition and denoising module, individual forecasting module, optimization module and evaluation module, aiming to tolerate uncertainty to provide policymakers with more information. Decomposition and denoising strategy is adopted to extract and reconstruct the inherent modes of the original sequence. In order to verify the superiority of the CElif system, the electric load data of 30-minute interval in Australia are used to test. The numerical results conclude the CElif system not only has excellent coverage performance in electric load interval prediction, controls the uncertainty to a great extent, but also provides a basis for power system dispatching management.