Electric bicycle mode substitution for driving, public transit, conventional cycling, and walking

Abstract

The key to understanding the impacts of electric bicycles (e-bikes) on congestion, the environment, and public health is to what extent they displace travel by other (particularly motorized) modes of transportation. This study investigates the mode substitution effects of e-bikes, based on a meta-analysis of 38 observations of mode substitution patterns reported in 24 published studies from around the world. Median mode substitution reported in the literature is highest for public transit (33%), followed by conventional bicycle (27%), automobile (24%), and walking (10%), but varies widely with interquartile ranges of 31% for auto and 44% for public transit. Weighted mixed logit model results indicate a trade-off in substitution of motorized modes, with significantly greater displacement of public transit in China and greater displacement of auto travel elsewhere (Europe, North America, and Australia). Newer studies report greater displacement of driving and walking and less displacement of conventional bicycle trips, which indicates a positive trend. Results also suggest that e-bike adoption may be part of a transition away from conventional bicycle use, while displacing auto and transit travel after adoption. Further studies are needed in the context of evolving forms of micromobility, particularly outside of northern Europe and China.