Electoral Protests and Political Attitudes under Electoral Authoritarianism

Abstract

Do opposition protests affect citizens’ attitudes in electoral autocracies? While existing research expects that as protests unfold in illiberal regimes support for the protesters will increase, there are only a few empirical tests of this hypothesis. Combining an original author-assembled protest event data set with two nationally representative public opinion surveys that were in the field during the 2011–12 electoral protests in Russia, we examine whether and how protests affect political attitudes. We find that, in the early weeks of the protest wave, opposition rallies generated support for the demands of the protest movement. Nevertheless, evidence also suggests that the effects of protests on attitudes are not uniform. The coverage of protests in national media, and the use of regime-led repression against protesters, dampen support for the protest movement and its demands. Our findings make an original contribution to scholarship on authoritarian vulnerability and resilience to street discontent.