Electoral Participation and Right Wing Authoritarian Success – Evidence from the 2017 Federal Elections in Germany

Abstract

The 2017 federal elections in Germany propelled the far-right party “Alternative fur Deutschland” (“Alternative for Germany” – AfD) to become the third largest party in the federal parliament. I argue that this electoral success can be explained by the party’s ability to mobilize a large part of the electorate that had abstained in previous elections. Theoretically, I argue that the AfD was able to asymmetrically mobilize voters because of its unique position in the German party system and because of a perceived centrist move of the CDU/CSU. Drawing on data from the Federal Returning Office, I show that the AfD was able to mobilize the electorate more successfully than other parties and that the party’s electoral success was in large part due to this mobilization success with the change in turnout the second strongest predictor of AfD vote shares. Furthermore, employing individual level data, I show that (a) a plurality of those voters who did not participate in the 2013 elections but participated in the 2017 elections voted for the AfD; and (b) that the centrist move of the CDU is perceived much more pronouncedly among AfD voters than among non-AfD voters.