Electoral Behaviour in a European Union under Stress

Daniela Braun,Markus Tausendpfund

doi:10.17645/pag.v8i1.2510

Abstract

Is electoral behaviour affected by the current challenges of the EU and, if it is, through which channels and mechanisms? This study offers a cross-national analysis together with a broad understanding of both the crisis phenomenon and electoral behaviour. To investigate this research question appropriately, we first distinguish at the most general level between the two main behavioural alternatives at play when it comes to electoral behaviour, namely abstention and vote choice. Second, and no less important, we differentiate between the mechanisms that mediate the relationship between the ‘EU under stress’ and electoral behaviour, namely egocentric and sociotropic economic voting motivations. Drawing on data from the European Election Study 2014, our article provides important insights into the study of electoral behaviour in an EU under stress. First, we are able to show that the multiple crises that have hit the EU have the potential to determine both turnout and the decision to vote for a Eurosceptic party. Second, different mechanisms are in play for each of the two behavioural alternatives: Turnout is clearly related to egocentric determinants and thus depends on individuals’ personal exposure to the financial crisis. Conversely, the decision to vote for a Eurosceptic party is based on a different mechanism. Voters—without necessarily being personally affected by the crisis—have a higher propensity to vote for a Eurosceptic party if they perceive their country to be threatened by such an EU under stress. These findings add to a better understanding of the EU’s multi-level democracy.

Highlights

Starting with the financial crisis which hit the world in 2007–2008, followed by the economic and the sovereign debt crisis, the EU has faced numerous events that together have brought the European system of multi-level governance into a permanent state of crisis
To effectively examine the idea of the EU that has been much challenged in recent years, we look at the economic crisis and study its implications on electoral behaviour, namely the two main behavioural alternatives of abstention and vote choice
In terms of the vote for a Eurosceptic party, we find two statistically significant effects: First, a fast economic recovery after the economic crisis reduces the likelihood of a Eurosceptic voting decision; and second, the likelihood of voting for a Eurosceptic party is lower in countries of the Eurozone compared with non-Eurozone countries

Summary

Introduction

Starting with the financial crisis which hit the world in 2007–2008, followed by the economic and the sovereign debt crisis, the EU has faced numerous events that together have brought the European system of multi-level governance into a permanent state of crisis. Empirical studies have shown that has the political system been affected and the dimension of wider EU politics Political parties adapt their policy positions towards the EU in times of crisis (Braun, Popa, & Schmitt, 2019; Conti, Hutter, & Nanou, 2018), while citizens adjust their perceptions of the EU system of multi-level governance (Braun & Tausendpfund, 2014; Hobolt & Wratil, 2015). Have citizens’ perceptions changed in times of crisis but so too has their political behaviour. The bulk of empirical studies focuses on the vote of government and mainstream parties as well as Eurosceptic parties in times of crisis, whereas scholars have traditionally been less interested in voters’ electoral participation. Voters can choose between two main behavioural alternatives. Hirschman (1970) aptly labels these two basic behavioural alternatives “exit” or “voice” as possible options if consumers (in our case voters) are no longer satisfied with the quality of the product (in our case the EU under stress)

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Conclusion