Abstract

Indonesian elections are not generally expected to produce surprises. Not even in the relatively free poll of 1955 could elections be said to have contributed significantly to changing a government in Indonesia. All elections in the country's history, from the first limited franchise elections held by the Netherlands Indies government just after the turn of the century to the festival of democracy (pesta demokrasi) of May 4, 1982, in which over 75 million people voted, have been intended to serve an established regime. The purpose of elections has been twofold: to confer legitimacy on the regime; and to give the opportunity, through elected representatives, for public opinion to influence, take part in, and improve the performance of government without ever taking charge of it. Indonesian governments have not generally felt themselves threatened by the elections they have held. When it comes to interpreting individual election results produced under these circumstances, it can be difficult to avoid the feeling that analysis is pointless. In the heat of the moment, a few percentage points difference in the performance of Golkar, the government electoral organization, may seem to reduce or enhance the government's legitimacy or the opposition's claim to influence. But in the cold light of day, with Golkar winning a steady sixty-odd percent of the national vote, it is clear that little is changed by mere percentage points. Precisely because election results seemed so very predictable, it was a major event in the 1977 elections when Golkar lost the election in the capital territory (Daerah Khusus Ibukota) of Jakarta to the opposition Muslim PPP (Partai Persatuan Pembangunan, Unity Development Party). This defeat in the second general election held under President Suharto's New Order seemed to reflect a souring of the promise of the government that had replaced President Sukarno in 1966. In the years between the

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