Elections and Public Opinion: The End of the Honeymoon?

Abstract

LABOUR’s electoral honeymoon, already longer than that of any other government in modern times, came to an abrupt end during the year 2000. Earlier signs that the electorate was, if not disenchanted, certainly less enthusiastic about the New Labour project first surfaced in 1999. Elections to the new devolved institutions in Scotland and Wales saw Labour’s vote fall sharply from its 1997 general election level. Local elections in England held at the same time told a similar story and the European Parliament elections fought in June saw Labour win just 28% of the national vote—16 percentage points adrift of its 1997 support. These early warning signs were largely ignored because bad news from the ballot box was not reflected in the party’s opinion poll ratings. According to the polls, Labour was safely on course to achieve a second electoral term. During 2000, however, the government’s confidence began to falter as the polls swung against it, at first gently and then precipitately. Labour began the year believing that there were few obstacles in the way of its re-election; by its end such complacency had disappeared. Conservative confidence was buoyed by the government’s fall from grace, but the electorate still seemed wary of turning back to them and too often bad news followed good for the Opposition. A range of measures will be examined in order to assess how the state of public opinion and party popularity fluctuated throughout the year. Beginning with the opinion polls, we show how public opinion remained relatively stable for much of the time but then reacted in a highly volatile manner to political events during the early autumn. Following analysis of the polls, we then consider the elections to the newly created Greater London Authority. These provide evidence of a level of voter disenchantment with the mainstream political parties and a willingness to support a mayoral candidate without official party backing. Voter indifference or apathy was also in evidence at local elections in England, but it could not prevent the Conservatives from making sweeping gains. Finally, the focus moves to by-election contests, first parliamentary and then local, and how such contests might inform our understanding of both the political present and the electoral future.