Election, ethnic voting and regime change in The Gambia

Abstract

In 2016, Gambian dictator Yahya Jammeh, who had been in power for 22 years, organised a presidential election which he subsequently lost to the opposition coalition party. Why did Jammeh lose this election? What were the issues Gambians who participated in this election considered when they voted? This study examines three major issues on the ballot as factors that predicted Gambians’ voting decisions, which are economic conditions, human rights abuses, and support for candidates based on ethnicity. While the findings suggest some evidence of ethnic voting among some ethnic groups, a major factor that influenced the choices of most Gambians was human rights abuses by Jammeh’s regime. Gambian voters were split on the question of the economy, but their concern about human rights abuses was a significant predictor of vote choices that resulted in Jammeh losing the election to the opposition. Gambian voters in this election displayed a voting perspective that is consistent with voters in many advanced countries by showing that they too care about issues more than the ethnic identities of the candidates.