Elderly Population Projection and Their Health Expenditure Prospects in Japan

Tetsuo Fukawa

doi:10.4236/me.2017.811085

Abstract

By using a dynamic micro-simulation model named INAHSIM-II, we conducted a population-household projection in Japan (INAHSIM 2017) for the period of 2015-2065. Due to rapid aging of the population, the distribution of the elderly (65 years old or older) by dependency level has a profound impact on health expenditure (namely medical expenditure and long-term care expenditure) of the elderly. In this paper, we estimated health expenditure of the elderly in 2025-2065, using the results of the projection of the elderly by dependency level.

Highlights

Most medical services in Japan are provided through the public medical insurance system
By using a dynamic micro-simulation model named INAHSIM-II, we conducted a population-household projection in Japan (INAHSIM 2017) for the period of 2015-2065
Due to rapid aging of the population, the distribution of the elderly (65 years old or older) by dependency level has a profound impact on health expenditure of the elderly

Summary

Introduction

Most medical services in Japan are provided through the public medical insurance system. The entire population has been covered by the public medical system since 1961. Japan has three categories of medical insurance: employmentbased Health Insurance, region-based National Health Insurance, and Health Insurance for the Elderly aged 75 or over (since April 2008). The average contribution rate of employment-based Health Insurance is 10.0 percent of annual wages today, shared evenly by employers and employees. Patient’s cost-sharing has been unified to 30 percent of medical costs for non-elderly patients and 10 or 20 percent for elderly patients. There is an upper ceiling on patients’ cost-sharing, and the cap is lower for low-income persons. In order to reduce the demand for medical services by preventing lifestyle-related diseases, patient-

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Conclusion