Elaboration of a Generalized Mixed Model for the wind speed distribution and an assessment of wind energy in Algerian Coastal regions and at the Capes

Abstract

Understanding and evaluating wind energy involves various steps, including the observed temporal and directional variations in wind speed, choosing a suitable Probability Density Function (PDF) to describe wind regimes, and selecting an appropriate location for building wind farms. The wind speed data archived from nine meteorological stations along the northern coast of Algeria from 2017 to 2021 was used as a dataset to achieve these purposes. Zero-inflated mixed model (ZIMM) has been elaborated to model the wind speed regimes that combine two processes. The first process consists of mixing two PDFs that generate the counts data. The second process generates the residual zero-counts data. The estimation of ZIMM parameters is obtained with the Expectation–Maximization algorithm. ZIMM performances were evaluated at the selected sites using the commonly used goodness of fit (GOF) metrics: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), sum of square error (SSE), Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS), Akaike information criterion (AIK), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and compared with the widespread single PDFs: the two parameters Weibull, generalized extreme value (GEV) and Normal–Weibull mixed model. The datasets are used as input for assessing wind power and the feasibility of wind power plants in 24 Algerian Capes where the data is unavailable, using the Wind Atlas Analyses and Application Program (WAsP) and three different wind turbines, namely Nordex N50, Bonus B54, and Nordex N60. The results show significant variations in diurnal, monthly, and seasonal mean wind speed and power density. According to all GOF, the ZIMM PDF model outperforms conventional PDFs and the mixed model at the nine meteorological stations. The Bonus B54 wind turbine has the best capacity factor (Cp) with the lowest electrical production cost of all Algerian Capes, and the Cp exceeds 0.3 at 15 Capes from the 24 analyzed Capes. The highest Cp, about 0.467 with an annual electric production that reaches 4.09 GWh/year, is obtained at Cape Takouch with the lowest electrical production cost of 0.0414 $/kWh and 2.032 Kton/year of CO2 emission avoided.