El Niño–Southern Oscillation extrema in the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest engine of interannual climate variability on the planet, yet its past behavior and potential for future change are poorly understood and vigorously contested. Reconstructions of past ENSO are indispensable for testing climate models tasked with predicting future ENSO activity in a warming world, but suitable geologic archives are scarce, especially for the last glacial period. Here we reconstruct mean climate and ENSO variability in the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from oxygen isotopic ratios (δ18O) of individual foraminifera retrieved from deep‐sea sediments. Our results document coordinated adjustments of the tropical Pacific/ENSO system between two diametrically opposite states: an “amplified ENSO” state in the LGM associated with a reduced zonal temperature gradient, and a “damped ENSO” state in the Mid‐Holocene with enhanced gradient. Orbital precession provided the switch between these states and acted as the dominant external driver of the tropical Pacific/ENSO system in the past 25,000 years. The linked response of the mean state and variability to orbital forcing provides an integrated framework for testing ENSO theory and models.